The primary driver of natural gas prices during the winter is the weather with natural gas storage levels coming in second. Forecasters are predicting a strong El Niño may reach historic levels in December or January and will be a major influence into early spring 2027. A potentially historic El Niño is expected to shape this winter, increasing flooding risks across parts of the West and South while favoring warmer, less snowy conditions across much of the Northern U.S. Heavy mountain snow in the West could help water supplies, while significant winter storms can still occur in areas forecast to receive less seasonal snowfall overall. Meteorologists say it has the potential to be the strongest El Niño since 1950.

Winter 2026 - 2027 Outlook - Full Story